Lance Spitzner of the Honeynet Project writes: The Honeynet Project is excited to announce the release of a new paper, “Know Your Enemy: Statistics”. The paper is based on eleven months of data we have collected, and covers two areas.
1. Aggressiveness. We show a variety of statistics, based on eleven months of Honeynet data, that demonstrate just how aggressive the blackhat community can be. Even more revealing is it appears the threat is getting worse.
2. Early Warning and Prediction. We present proof of concept that attacks can be predicted. The research is still preliminary, but based on statistical analysis, 7 out of 8 attacks could be predicted last year. Two different team members took two different statistical approaches, yet they findings were almost identical. Most of the attacks made against the Honeynet could be predicted two to three days in advance.
As this research is part of the Honeynet Project, all eleven months of data are also publicly released for review and further analysis.